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What does predictive validity indicate about a measurement?

  1. Its relevance to a specific population

  2. Its effectiveness in predicting future outcomes

  3. Its correlation to current test results

  4. Its capacity to determine face value

The correct answer is: Its effectiveness in predicting future outcomes

Predictive validity refers to how effectively a measurement can forecast future outcomes or behaviors. When a test or assessment has strong predictive validity, it means that the scores obtained can reliably predict how individuals will perform on related future tasks or assessments. For example, a standardized test designed to measure academic ability that successfully predicts students' success in college demonstrates high predictive validity. In the context of psychological testing or assessments, the ability to predict future performance is crucial for understanding the utility of the measurement tool. If a measurement proves to have predictive validity, it enhances the credibility of the assessment and supports its use in making decisions about individuals’ potential outcomes in real-world settings. The other options focus on different properties of measurement, such as relevance to specific populations, correlation to current results, and face validity, which do not address the ability to forecast future behavior or outcomes that is central to predictive validity.